Tropical Storm TWENTYNINE Advisory Mon Nov 06

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (TWENTYNINE)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 29W (TWENTYNINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
296 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES RAPIDLY DECAYING DEEP
CONVECTION OVER AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 061140Z
SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE REVEALS WEAKLY-DEFINED SHALLOW
BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED CENTER WITH ISOLATED DEEP
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES.
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-
10 KNOTS) AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TD 29W IS TRACKING POLEWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 29W IS FORECAST TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT
STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AND STEERS UNDER AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL STR POSITIONED TO THE NORTH, ALONG 18-20N LATITUDE. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO 30 KNOTS UNDER FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL OVER THE MALAY PENINSULA NEAR TAU
24. TD 29W WILL WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE MALAY PENINSULA BUT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RE-INTENSIFY AS IT TRANSITS THE ANDAMAN SEA. DUE
TO THE WEAK NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, DISSIPATION IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 29W WILL SLOW AS IT APPROACHES A BROAD BREAK
IN THE STR ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING OVER
BANGLADESH. AS A RESULT OF THE WEAKENING STEERING INFLUENCE, THERE
IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK WITH A LARGE SPREAD
IN THE DYNAMIC MODEL SOLUTIONS. TD 29W IS FORECAST TO SIGNIFICANTLY
INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS BY TAU 120 AS IT DEVELOPS
A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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