MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 25W (HAIMA) WARNING NR 06// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON 25W (HAIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 13 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ULITHI, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION WITH IMPROVING BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI). THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 65 KNOTS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 152100Z DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.5 FROM KNES AND T3.5 FROM PGTW FOLLOWED BY THE 160000Z ESTIMATE OF T4.0 FROM PGTW. TY 25W REMAINS WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION, WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SSTS. IT IS TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN. B. THROUGH TAU 72, TY 25W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS SUPPORTIVE OF CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION, WITH WARM SSTS, EXCELLENT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THUS, A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST, AND TY 25W IS EXPECTED TO REACH SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY IN APPROXIMATELY 2 TO 3 DAYS. C. BEYOND TAU 72, GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHTLY MORE RESTRICTED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS THE STEERING INFLUENCE SWITCHES TO THE STR NEAR TAIWAN, SO INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST TO CEASE WITH SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING POSSIBLE JUST PRIOR TO LAND INTERACTION WITH LUZON. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWING A DECREASE BY TAU 96. SOME SLIGHT RE- INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE AFTER THE LLCC EMERGES OVER THE LUZON STRAIT OR THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN