MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 29W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 12// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM 29W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 198 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF COLD DENSE OVERCAST BECOMING ELONGATED AS SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. A 270446Z GMI IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION ON THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON RECENT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) AND A 270207Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING 45 KNOT WIND BARBS NEAR THE LLCC. SHIP OBSERVATIONS IN COMBINATION WITH OTHER SCATTEROMETRY DATA IN THE REGION SHOW A NORTHEASTERLY SURGE DEVELOPING THROUGH THE TAIWAN STRAIT BRINGING HIGH WINDS INTO AREAS OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. AN UPPER-LEVER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND RIDGE TO THE EAST IS CREATING STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE TOP OF THE SYSTEM. CURRENTLY THE SYSTEM IS SLOWING DOWN AND TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST AS A DEEP- LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST COMPETES WITH HIGH VELOCITY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS TOKAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT AS THE NORTHEASTERN SURGE DEVELOPS AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXERTS LESS INFLUENCE OVER THE SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. BEYOND TAU 24 THE DOMINANT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ABRUPTLY SHIFT THE SYSTEM TO A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, FURTHER WEAKENING THE SYSTEM. TS TOKAGE IS EXPECTED TO FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 48.// NNNN NNNN